NFL Playoff Picks - Divisional round
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Welcome to the NFL Playoffs Divisional round!
Last week Pat and I together went 9-3 against the spread (ATS) and hit nine out of 14 prop bets. Can we run it back? We shall see! Read our picks and rationals below. If you prefer to listen/watch see the links below to the show. We will be LIVE each Friday at 6:30p ET throughout the playoffs!
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Saturday - January 20th
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens @ 4:30pm ET
Ravens -9.5
Over/Under 43.5
Pete: -9.5 Ravens (more faith in Ravens ML)
Game-time temperatures are looking to be in the mid-20s today, it's going to be cold! Look for the Ravens offense to rely on the power run and take this one. Lamar Jackson is way too good. CJ Stroud did have an amazing week last week going 16/21 for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns becoming the first rookie quarterback to beat the No. 1-ranked defense in the postseason. Ravens defensive coordinator Mike McDonald is familiar with Stroud, and I think will hold him in this one. The Ravens rank 1st in points allowed per game and 1st in yards per pass and they are also 2nd in the NFL in sacks. I have this as a 10 point game so it is risky.
Paddy: Texans +9.5
Pat doesnt think the Texans wins but thinks the 9.5 point line is too much to give the Texans. This is the divisional round and considering how well the Texans are playing 9.5 is just too much. Pat has this at a one touchdown game that the Ravens likely (foreshadowing) win. Pat does give credit to Lamar which is why they win. Not many points get scored in the cold, he doesnt think the Ravens get a 10 point lead.
Pete and Paddy Prop tips:
Zay Flowers over 50.5 yards + Ravens Win (+126)
Flowers averages 53.6 receiving yards per game which is 2.9 over the prop. 10 out of 16 games he had over 50 receiving yards or more. He averaged 53.6 receiving yards per game and in Week 16/17 leading receiver for team - week 18 they sat starters
Likely TD Scorer + Ravens win (+162)
Paddy loves this pick, since Andrews went down Likely has slotted right in. He has basically scored every week outside of the week against the 49’s. Maybe even add in receptions if you want a three legger.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49’s @ 8:15pm ET
49’s -9.5
Over/Under 50.5
Pete: Packers +9.5 (49’s ML)
Another weather game potentially; rainy/windy (75% of rain) and 12+ MPH winds. I think the 49's win, but it will be a closer game than 9 points. San Fran scores 29 ppg and only allows 17.5 ppg (11.5 diff) but this is playoff football and those stats are against the whole league. Add to that the fact the 49’s starters haven't played in 3 weeks and I think it's closer than 9.5 points.
Paddy: 49’s -9.5
Paddy likes the 49’s to win and potentially cover. Paddy thinks the Packers may have peaked last week and the Niners are too good. Home field advantage tips the game in the 49’s direction.
Pete and Paddy Props Tips:
CMC anytime TD (-340)
Do we really need to provide rationale here? CMC is a scoring machine! Maybe you take him as the first or last scorer and get a + payout.
Sunday - January 21st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions 3pm ET
Lions -6
Over/Under 49.5
Pete: Lions -6
The Bucs win last week was more about the Eagles sucking than the Bucs succeeding.Tampa Bay in the regular season did not score on good defenses. The Detroit Lions minus Gibbs dominated Mayfield (56.8 passer rating) and the Bucs in Tampa Week 6 which started the Bucs losing streak. The Bucs lost 6 out of 7 weeks 6-12. The Buc’s best and first good win of season was week 15 they won 34-20 vs GB. This team gets my fraud alert. Lions at home with the crowd support is all they need to win this one
Paddy: Lions -6
The Lions are playing a divisional playoff game, what a time to be alive? Paddy loves him some Baker Mayfield and even he doesn't think the Bucs pull this one out. Paddy loved the offense last week and thinks the Lions cover.
Pete and Paddy Props Tips:
Under 49.5
Tampa Bay went under 15 out of 18 times this year, the Lions defense should help add to this. 11 of Detroit's 18 games have gone over however. Bucs avg 21 points Lions avg 27.1 total avg combined 48.1.
Sam Laporta anytime TD scorer +125
Potential rookie of the year at + odds to score a TD, scored the past two weeks. He is known to be the red zone target for Goff. Lions targeted Laporta 11 times in the week six matchup versus the Bucs.
KC Chiefs and Buffalo Bills 6:30pm ET
Lions -2.5
Over/Under 45.5
Pete: Bills -2.5
The rematch of the divisional round from two years ago in the same round and at the same time slot. That game combined for 78, this one will not. No snow this time, but the weather is a factor as the temperature is projected in the mid 20’s. Week 14 Bills beat Chiefs 20-17 in Kansas City, Buffalo playing at home with momentum (winners of 7 of last 8) should help them win this one too. Chiefs pass catchers continue to struggle to catch the ball which will be further affected in the cold. Bills made a change to Joe Brady and since then have been a run heavy offense that pairs well with the solid defense.
Paddy: Bills -2.5
“This is the Josh Allen redemption game” says Paddy. He thinks this game gets sent to OT. He predicts, Bills will lose the coin toss, the Chiefs score a FG and Bills score TD for the win. If that happens, you heard (or read) it here first!
Pete and Paddy Props Tips:
Pacheco over 61.5 yards (-120)
He averaged over 109 yards per game over the past two weeks; since December (week16) he has averaged 88.8 yards per game. With the cold weather, look for the Chiefs to lean on the run early.
Josh Allen 4 LEG PARLAY
Leg 1- Josh Allen over 227.5 passing yards;
Leg 2- Josh Allen over 42.5 rushing yards Parlay
Leg 3- Josh Allen anytime TD
Leg 4- Over 0.5 ints thrown
The most risky leg is the yards in my opinion, he did average 239 yards per game in the regular season. Josh Allen has scored rushing TD in 14 out of 18 games. I expect plays to break down against the Chiefs defense and Allen to scramble for over 42.5 odds. Over 42.5 yards rushing past three weeks including playoff game vs steelers. Allen only has two games where he didn't throw a pick this year (one being last week).
OT +1000
This game screams OT. If one game goes into OT, it's this one. We aren’t suggesting a large bet but some small money on a big payout could be fun.
Kincaid +300 TD anytime
Another good rookie TD in the playoffs, he scored last week, which was only his third TD of the year, but we could be seeing the rookie breakout. With Gabe Davis out we see Kincaid picking up some of those red zone targets.